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Where to place your money on the regular-season win total for every Mountain West school

Fresno State Air Force
Fresno State and Air Force are both being projected for a roughly .500 season. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

The Mountain West football season begins is less than two weeks with Hawaii, Fresno State and San Jose State each playing week zero games Aug. 28. Win totals have been released for all 12 MW teams, so let's take a look at where I'd place my money for each school. Odds provided by DraftKings, with the over line listed and then the under line. Regular-season wins only.

* Boise State, 9 (+110/-130): I'd guess Boise State wins nine games for a push. If I had to bet one way, I'd lean the under despite it being minus money. Boise State has a tough non-league schedule, including games with BYU, UCF and Oklahoma State, and while the Mountain Division is weak, the Broncos draw Nevada, SDSU and Fresno State in the West. The bet: Under

* San Jose State, 8 (-105/-115): SJSU has a weak non-league schedule that includes games with Southern Utah, New Mexico State and Western Michigan. Plus, it gets Utah State, Colorado State and Wyoming from the Mountain Division. Most of last year's MW title team is back, so SJSU should have another strong season and win at least eight. The bet: Over

* Wyoming, 7.5 (-120/+100): In the last five years, Wyoming is 32-26 and has basically been a slightly above .500 team. That's the projection again this year, although a lot hinges on whether QB Sean Chambers can stay healthy after three straight season-ending injuries. I don't trust Wyoming's offense enough to take the over. The bet: Under

* Nevada, 7.5 (-120/+100): Coming off a 7-2 season, Nevada returns a conference-best nine All-Mountain West players and lost just two starters in the offseason. Unless Carson Strong's knee surgery becomes a bigger issue, I don't see how the Wolf Pack falls short of eight wins despite a difficult road schedule. I'd go heavy on the over line. The bet: Over

* Hawaii, 7 (+125/-145): The Rainbow Warriors went 5-4 in Todd Graham's first season, and he's finished below .500 only three times in 13 seasons as a head coach. It's worth remembering Hawaii is playing 13 games this season rather than 12. This seems like a push with seven regular-season wins. If I had to bet it, I'd lean on the under. The bet: Under

* San Diego State, 6.5 (-125/+105): Discounting last year's COVID season, SDSU has won more than 6.5 games in 10 straight seasons, so the sports books are lower on the Aztecs than its history would indicate. SDSU draws two Pac-12 foes, so getting to seven won't be easy, and it's a minus-money bet on the over, but that's where I'd put my money. The bet: Over

* Air Force, 6.5 (-125/+105): I can never predict how good Air Force is going to be, so I wouldn't bet on this one. The Falcons have gone under 6.5 wins in four of the last eight seasons after five straight years of seven or more wins prior to that. I'd take the plus money and go under, but I have no confidence in predicting how good Air Force will be. The bet: Under

* Fresno State, 6 (-110/-110): If I had to bet a long shot from the MW to win the conference title, it'd be Fresno State at 20/1 odds. I'm a believer in coach Kalen DeBoer, who drew a rough hand due to COVID issues in his first season as the Bulldogs' head coach. Fresno State might have the MW's most difficult schedule, but I'd still bet the over. The bet: Over

* Colorado State, 5 (+105/-125): It was hard to discern much from Steve Addazio's first season at Colorado State given the team played only four games. This is probably a push, but I'd take the under given the Rams play two Power 5 teams (Iowa, Vanderbilt), draw three good West teams (Nevada, SJSU, Hawaii) and have quarterback questions. The bet: Under

* New Mexico, 4.5 (-125/+105): The Lobos showed late life under first-year coach Danny Gonzales last year and should be able to pick up three non-league wins in games against New Mexico State, UTEP and Houston Baptist. Can New Mexico add two wins in MW play? Yep, I think that's doable after going 2-5 in MW action last season. The bet: Over

* Utah State, 3.5 (-120/+100): First-year coach Blake Anderson inherited a mess, but he's infused his roster with a number of FBS transfers, including quarterback Logan Bonner and linebacker Justin Rice, the 2020 MW preseason defensive player of the year (when he was at Fresno State). The schedule should allow for a 4-8 season. The bet: Over

* UNLV, 1.5 (-105/-125): The Rebels went 0-6 in their first season under Marcus Arroyo, and the bar is set low this year with a 1.5 win line. Assuming UNLV wins its opener against FCS school Eastern Washington, you're asking for one more win in its final 11 games. That's not asking too much. Although this is UNLV football, so maybe it is asking too much. The bet: Over

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.

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