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Week 11 NFL best bets: Chiefs will get road revenge on Raiders

Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs take on the Raiders on Sunday. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

I went 3-0 last week, which gets me back to 50 percent, which always feels good. But we have lots of season left, and with COVID on the rise and winter approaching some of these may change by Sunday. Always check weather and injury reports. The Browns/Texans game was a perfect example of this as the public began taking the over not knowing the 50 mile per hour winds that awaited, which led to a 10-7 final score. A few winter betting notes below and onto the week!

* Rain and wind effects totals to go under, especially wind. Imagine your golf balls traveling in Washoe Valley with those winds and what footballs can do in those same circumstances. Not so good for the offense.

* Snow, but just snow helps totals go over. The defense gets tired of making all those cuts, and the offense can usually “slide” by in those conditions. For example, take the Chiefs-Broncos game this year with no wind and snow flurries. Your final score was 43-16.

GB @ IND (IND-2): I hate betting against Aaron Rodgers, and I hate putting money on Phillip Rivers. That said, I’m on the Colts this weekend. The Colts proved they were more real than fake with their win against Tennessee, and they have had a few extra days to prepare. Packers receiver Davante Adams hasn’t practiced all week, and the Packers really can’t stop the run. It should be close, but the Colts look like a hungry team that knows they can win their division. The Packers can afford to lose this game, and let’s hope they do! 30-23, Colts.

TEN @ BAL (TEN +6): Baltimore has a lot of defensive line injuries right now, most notably their starting two defensive tackles. Anyone else think Derrick Henry will have a big day? No one can guard AJ Brown either on the Ravens roster. Titans use ball control and their play-action game to keep Lamar Jackson off the field, and I think the Titans have a strong chance to win this game outright. Beware, however, the Titans' offense has been off track since losing two of their offensive linemen. If they get one back, the Titans are live here. 27-20 Titans edge it out in the 4th quarter.

KC @ LVR (KC-7): So this happened earlier this week. The Raiders have a lot of people in COVID protocol now. I would be shocked if they were missing all of the current players on the list, but it’s never good to not practice all week then play the defending champs with bulletin board material. The under should be good in this one, too. Look for Kansas City's defense to not give up as many big plays as before. 31-20, Chiefs.

Ben Maggio is the Sports Business Development Manager for Nevada Sports Net and occasionally writes for the website. You contact him at bemaggio@sbgtv.com.

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