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NFL picks for Week 7: Three 'overs' that will hit this week

Stafford
Matthew Stafford and the Lions play the Falcons on Sunday. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Not a great week last week, but as I shared with Chris Murray during our Takeout Tuesday segment that skewed into sports betting, my Bills bet does not count last week because Matt Milano was not there to contain Travis Kelce, hence his two-touchdown effort last week. I had the Bills on a teaser at 15.5 points that ended up just fine and also had the Chiefs money line, so I’ve decided to just go with my gut here and try for a better “official” week.

To be honest, none of the lines really stick out to me this week as lots of games should be close and are tossups. I will give out my best 7-point and 10-point teaser of the week. Always nice taking some insurance. While Chris Murray may say this is cheating, it’s not cheating if you win and it’s sanctioned by the Nevada Gaming Commission and William Hill! See how this sounds much better than the real lines?

Best 7-point teaser (+110)

* Lions @ Falcons (OVR 48): The Lions and Falcons have played 11 total games. Ten of those games have gone over this number.

* Steelers @ Titans (OVR 43.5): The Steelers and Titans have played 11 total games. Nine of those games have gone over this number.

* Seahawks @ Cardinals (AZ +10.5): The Cardinals' largest margin of loss has been 10 points. Outside of the lowly week 1 Falcons, all Seahawk wins have been eight points are less.

Best 10-point teaser (-120)

*Bills @ Jets (BUF -1): This is much better than minus-11. The line is moving down a bit because Jets get Sam Darnold back. Don’t be fooled by Buffalo’s last two losses. They were against two of the best teams in the league at the moment. If they don’t win this week, we all deserve to lose

* Chiefs @ Broncos (KC +1): May be close game, but you get Pat Mahomes versus Drew Lock. I went back two years, and the Chiefs are 4-0 against the Broncos. They could play this game on Mars, and I would still back them at this number.

* Seahawks @ Cardinals (OVR 46): 27-20 is all you need. Both games last year between this teams went over this number. The Seahawks haven't finished a game below 47 all year.

Ben Maggio is the Sports Business Development Manager for Nevada Sports Net and occasionally writes for the website. You contact him at bemaggio@sbgtv.com.

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